Saturday, November 05, 2005

Where do we stand?

I know this is going to open the floor for everyone to kill each other again, but that's alright - what do you (personally) think is going to happen in the upcoming Presidential Election? This a question I've been asking everyone for the past month or so, and nobody really seems to have an answer.

Guess correctly and walk away with twinkies courtesy of Nittewa.*

Note : I'm not asking you who you would like to see in power. I'm just asking you to analyze the current political situation and predict who will come to power. Is the election really too close to call?

*Offer valid while stocks last.

Comments:
 
ranil will win.
election is actually not close at all. it has become boring. and as i have said in several places (here for instance) this is the first of many such elections where the winner is easily predictable months ahead.
 
one question - is voting compulsory in Sri Lanka?
 
Ashanthi : No, it is not.
 
Well I think Ranil will squeeze thru to a very narrow win in the end. Mostly because he has a very pleasing election manifesto which is slightly more realistic than Mahinda's and also due to the fact that ppl believe that he has what it takes to deliver atleast some of those promised by him. In contrast, I think ppl believe that Mahinda is all talk but no walk the talk.

Also, I think that Ranil has a more widespread voterbase spread throughout the country and some factors like the JVP, (slow pace of)Tsunami rehabilitation work (if at all), Mangala's actions and all would contribute negatively to Mahinda's run in the polls.

So conclusion - Ranil will squeeze thru very narrowly(dont know how the budget will affect all this tho).
 
thanks lastnode -

this being the case and the extent of voter intimidation that has gone on for every single election in SL, can someone tell me what per cent of the voting populous actually did in the last elections?
 
in 2001 76.03% of registered voters voted. in 2000 it was 75.62%. data from election department website. the relevant figure for 2004 is not stated there, but was similar.

i think voter participation is high compared to other countries.
 
Yep, certainly is. So if we now look at voting blocks & we know which way they are going to vote, then we have our winner.

s/nut has been saying for sometime now the Ranil has the numbers, in the context of voting blocks, a simple example rural south vs urban south, who has the numbers?

Also, I don't think we should disregard voter intimidation & it's effects.

Taking into account the above - can someone predict which way the votes will go.

btw - will there be any voting in Jaffna? Or is that a stupid question. I believe that the TNA is not going to support either candidate - what if any is the prediction for the Jaffna vote.

I gather Ranil has been up to Jaffna to shake Soldier hands because they will be voting. What about Mahinda & the JVP, did they go up there to schmooze with the soldiers - or is that a stupid question?
 
I think saying that Ranil will win by a biggish margin in Colombo is probably correct. On the other hand, Mahinda (+ the JVP) has a lot more support at the grass root level in the provinces.

Contrary to what technobatta said, in my experience, the PA+JVP has a much stronger out station voter base than the UNP. I mean, just look at the last GE. Colombo (and other major towns) were mostly green, while most other areas were blue (or red).

Of course since the PA+JVP is now the ruling party, there will naturally be the usual swing back, resulting in the loss of a certain percentage of votes.

So yeah, IMO, this election is really going to be quite close indeed.
 
one should never convert maps into numbers because some of those vast blue areas have only a small no of voters. and even though colombo looks small in a electoral maps, nos are huge.(whole of polonaruwa district for instance has barely more voters than a single polling division of colombo) and in a presidential elections it is the actual nos that count.
main question is whether mahinda can get about 65-70% of sinhala-buddhist (who make up about 70% of the electorate) vote. to win he must. all indications are that he will get 50% to 60% of that vote (so the map will look more or less the same as in 2004) but he will still lose. result became a foregone conclusion the moment he signed up with jvp and jhu.

last time upfa got 64% in hambantota(mahida's home and jvp's strongest) so when the results come (some divisions in hambantota will be the first to release results) check the percentage, if he goes below 2004 figures there, he is lost. to win he will have to be closer to 70%.
and even in hambantota as you see unp had 35% voting for it in a losing year. so techobatta is right it has a more widespread voter base.
ashanthi, mahinda also went 'up there to schmooze with the soldiers' the day after ranil.
 
LTTE seems to want Ranil to lose. There's no way in hell that Ranil can win without the Tamil votes. Just take a look at Tamilnet and LTTE newspapers.
 
Even if Ranil wins doesn't he have to put up with a hostile government led by Mahinda & co?
 
ivap:
no the government automatically dissolves on election of a new president. but he will have to appoint a new government with a majority in parliament, to get a majority he will either dissolve the parliament and go for a election or will get the slfp to join the government.
 
ta
 
Had a brief look at Tamilnet - s/nut, ivap, etc - your comments on the position the UNP is taking re the LTTE.

Either way though - the desire for autonomy ( not seperation) but self government is just not specific to the LTTE. It is what the Tamil people want. So if the UNP does not tackle this they will merely perpetuate the situation for generations to come.

Frankly I don't think they are as stupid. This may well be a lot of anti-LTTE rethoric to win votes - however, its not my ear to the ground there - so over to you guys...
 
you are right, what's going on is stupid at such a time.

both the unp and the ltte proxies should tone down their rhetoric
 
Mahinda is getting ready.

Sri Lanka 2006 Defence expenditure to increase by 30%
http://www.tamilnet.com/art.html?catid=13&artid=16290
 
Security Forces Attack LTTE Cadre

Ilakkiyan of the political Wing of Amparai Sea Tiger unit was attacked by the Special Task Force (STF) soldiers Yesterday while he was carrying out his political work.

Ilakiyan was traveling from Thirukovil towards Aruhamai at 10.00 am yesterday morning. STF soldiers standing in guard at their security post in the area stopped the LTTE cadre. Ilakiyan produced proof of his status as an LTTE cadre. The STF soldiers ignored this and severely attacked him.

A complaint about this attack has been lodged with the Amparai SLMM branch.

02 February 2005

http://www.ltteps.org/?view=607&folder=2 http://www.ltteps.org/?view=607&folder=2

--

Quote of the Day

"Rather than idleness of people, it is the activeness of people that turns the wheels of the struggle. "

- Velupilllai Pirabakaran, National Leader of Tamil Eelam

http://www.state-terrorism.net/memory/Feb/Feb01.htm http://www.state-terrorism.net/memory/Feb/Feb01.htm

Memory Calendar

http://www.state-terrorism.net/memory_calendar.htm http://www.state-terrorism.net/memory_calendar.htm

7 civilians shot dead by Brainless Sinhala Buddhist Chavunist Thugs

Seven civilians were shot dead by the Sri Lankan Police in Thampalakamam, in Trincomalee this morning around 6.00 a.m. in retaliation to an attack by the Liberation Tigers on some police force in the area last night. The incident occurred in a village near Thampalakamam called Pokkuruni. 7 Civilians were dragged to the police post and were shot dead there. One civilian escaped with injuries.

more >>

http://www.state-terrorism.net/memory/Feb/Feb01.htm

Of the 27 Tamils who were hacked to death in this premeditated murderous venture, twenty two were below the age of nineteen and they were in their early-teens when they were arrested in the streets of Colombo, Batticaloa, Trincomalee and Vavuniya. It is no secret that almost all these children were taken into custody because they were poor and that they were Tamils. In my two recent visits to Sri Lanka, I was able to meet some of the parents who said that their children were arrested and kept incommunicado for over two years in spite of the vain efforts made by the International committee of the Red Cross to verify their whereabouts.

http://www.tamilcanadian.com/pageview.php?ID=2105&SID=257 http://www.tamilcanadian.com/pageview.php?ID=2105&SID=257

--

""""""""""""" - 'The Sinhala political organizations and their leadership, which are deeply buried in the mud of Sinhala-Buddhist chauvinism, will never be able to comprehend the political aspirations of the people of Tamil Eelam. None of the major Sinhala political parties are prepared to recognize the fundamentals underlying the Tamil national question. None of the Sinhala political organizations is prepared to accept the northeastern region as the historical homeland of the Tamil-speaking people, that the Tamils constitute themselves as a distinct nationality and that they are entitled to the right to self-determination, including the right to secede. - """"""""""""""""""""""""

more >>

http://www.state-terrorism.net/2004/11/27_Heros_Day_Speech_2004.htm

======================================================

Sri Lankan War Crime : http://www.State-Terrorism.net/Sri_Lankan-State-Terrorism.htm

Sinhala Terrorist War Crime: http://www.State-Terrorism.net/state_terrorism4.htm

Memory Calendar : http://www.state-terrorism.net/memory_calendar.htm

Earlier News Messages http://www.state-terrorism.net/2001/

Voice of Tamils: http://www.state-terrorism.net

================================================= LTTE is a politico- military organisation, which is fighting for the right of self-determination of the Tamil people =================================================
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