Tuesday, April 25, 2006

Now What?

The explosion today outside the Army Hospital in Colombo is the biggest explosion in Colombo since the ceasefire agreement. Barring the explosion at the Colpetty Police Station that killed four policemen and a few gangland and mysterious minor explosions around the city, this is the only explosion in Colombo since the ceasefire agreement.

It would be easy to assume that the LTTE is behind this, and that their aim was to assassinate Lt. Gen. Sarath Fonseka. The suicide bomber certainly points to this being of their doing. At the time of writing this, it's not very clear as to if they managed to achieve their aim. A few years ago (not mnay), as the Commander in charge of the forces in the Jaffna Peninsula Sarath Foneska came down hard on the LTTE, and on anyone who showed any sympathy for the LTTE.

So when new President Mahinda Rajapakse posted Sarath Fonseka as the Commander of the Army, it was very clear what it meant. Mahinda was not interested in being cute with the LTTE. Fonseka was also a accomplished (if brutal) military commander, and would be a key person in a war that seems more and more real each passing day.

So what is the LTTE saying now by trying to kill him?

They are not just marking him as a military target. His death would of course be beneficial to the LTTE in the battlefield, but this seems to also have a political statement somewhere in it.

And the statement seems to be: Prabhakaran, not Mahinda makes the decisions in this country.

what next...the army bombed the tiger base at sampoor
looks like the LTTE succeeded in provoking the army doesn't it...what are they trying to achieve...hmmm...well i never quite understood the LTTE, but they seem to want the SLA to make the declaration of war- what either is going to gain out of a resumption of hostilities, heaven knows- but seems to me that with the LTTE now banned in Canada as well, they may have no reason to show the world they are good guys anymore and provocation maybe there only strategy to gain leverage.
I dont simply see it as 'LTTE was successful in provoking the Army'.
This kind of attack absolutely can not be passed over without retaliation. The Army did the right thing, in the right amount I believe.

LTTE couldnt incite the Army with little attacks by the way side. Instead they had to create a major incident which the World picked up in a big way. Thats what it cost them to incite the Army.

No one can blame the Army for retaliating after its Commander was attacked. This still doesnt mean war.
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