Tuesday, October 11, 2005

Tugging on the Rug

Is Chadrika going to screw Mahinda? Is she going to do something to pull the rug out from under him at the last moment? Is she willing to sink Mahinda, and deny the SFLP power for six years simply to keep the Bandaranaike family at the helm of the SLFP?

That seems to be what much of Colombo is contemplating right now.

But she can't really do much to him after he has handed in his nomination as their candidate for the Presidential Election. Is she crazy enough to pull some wild stunt just pre-election that can destabilize Mahinda's platform? Isn't Anura already doing that? With all the statements he's been making on public platforms stating that it was Mahinda himself who brought the P-TOMS to the Parliament, even though he is now saying he will abolish it if he becomes the President, and statements expressing disgust at the JVPs approach to the peace process, Anura has already been slowly tugging at the rug beneath Mahinda. Is he just setting things up for his sister to step in and take the final KO punch?

She really has little to lose. She can sink Mahinda now with no risk to herself. Even if the punch does backfire and the SLFP as a whole does go with Mahinda disregarding the Bandaranaikes I don't think she's going to be too worried.

But what if she releases S B? According to little bits of gossip going around the UNP camp she's trying to make a deal with S B. She'll release him and let him do whatever the UNP wants him to do for this election, if he gives her the book he's been writing and promises never to write it again. Now now, don't we all want to know what's in the bloody book if she wants it so badly. This is all just unverified gossip but I wouldn't be too surprised if it was true.

Has S B really put down on paper all the dirty little secrets about their Government? Will she release him? And even if she does, when impact, if any, is that going to have on the election?

Comments:
 
Of course she's going to sink him & she'll be saying the LTTE did it - let's face it it's too easy...
 
what ever she does wont affect the outcome.
no one can win with a mainly racist program here now.
ranil will win hands down.
 
I am putting this link here since I cannot put it in Kottu. Not sure about the authencity, but probably everybody reading this can verify it? One thing for sure is that you cannot vote twice over the same computer.
http://www.therpsl.org/presidential2005.php
 
don't be so sure.
online polls can always be manipulated.
pity we don't have bookmakers giving odds on the election,or online political markets those things really work. (way better than offline polls even.
 
sittingnut - I wanted to set up a political market but I don't have a unix/linux box connected to the internet. Would have been intersting.
 
Yeah, but i think some of the tv channels have started calling in for votes. Notably sirasa/mtv and itn.Even though we know that they are biased and most probably the results will be medelled with I think it's a good trend leading towards a really independent opinion poll, someday!
 
ivap: interesting indeed. maybe we will have something 6 years from now. by then hopefully we will have more internet (esp. adsl) connections and more credit card use here to make it liquid and feasible.
niroshank:
yes sirasa/mtv sms poll with prize is a nice idea imo (morquendi disagrees i think?). only i hope somebody independent was conducting it.
 
“No one can win with a mainly racist program here now” - sittingnut

I’m sure you are referring to the alliances between Mahinda and JVP/JHU…if these alliances are racist programs, then how should we perceive the alliances between Ranil and CWC/SLMC ?

Have you seen the 19 conditions put forwarded by CWC? (Exclusive “Tamils – Only” educational facilities, separate Tamils grama sewaka divisions in up country etc???) Ranil, who is said to have a clear economic policy. is going to abandon the upper-Kothmalae power plant project to appease Thondaman…His deputy, Karu, had a major fight with Thondaman on the same issue and vowed to proceed with the project during the period he held the post of energy ministry…furthermore do you know what Hakeem wants from Ranil in exchange of his support? Don’t you see elements of racism among the conditions put forwarded by these ppl?

All I see is a contest between two guys desperately trying to impress two different communities to win the race…Ranil is trying to impress Tamils/Muslims at any cost ( while desperately trying to impress Sinhala Buddhists with his publicity/media tricks) . At the same time “Rohana Jana Ranjana” Mahinda is trying to pretend as the savior of Sinhalease and desperately trying to win minority votes. For me both are the same…both have selected the cheapest option, communalism ,available under the present system first established under 1931 Donamore reform

If you are a supporter of UNP you will only see the bad side of SLFP/JVP etc….if you are a SLFP/JVP supporter you will only see the bad side of UNP…this is the simple theory governed by most of the Sri Lankans irrespective of their intellectual capacity, experience and knowledge…From so called “independent journalists” to the most ignorant this has been the guiding light…
 
ivap/sittingnut - isn't itruecoolguy a wiz with this sort of stuff?

Either way Ivap - pse give me more specs on exactly what you need - I will pass it onto my connections - let's see if we can set up what you want.

You guys are sooo cool .... & you cook!

Morquendi - (he who never speaks to Ashanthi ...grrr) when the elections are on - we will be watching over here - can you please ensure that you get your fingers into play - I want an update every 15 minutes.

The elections are not going to be covered by any of the main networks overseas - however, if you get news stories out to me I will release them to the international press under your name.

This time Morquendi we're going to do it officially so that you don't get "spat on" for becoming famous...

I think what you can do is text the results & then maybe Ivap, Sittingnut or Yaaro can post them onto your Blog - but it really needs to be done every 15 minutes & maybe you can visit different polling booths.

Any images would be great too. I'm organising a gathering & if you get us something visual - this will really help...

Your heading might be something along the lines of ... First a Tsunami Wave - now a Peace Wave !!!!

:-) yeah, yeah - I know I'm dreamer not a fighter - but don't forget - where there is a will there is a way!

Anyway - please get back to me asap - I would like the results & any incidents to be broadcast right across the planet.. So we need a blog-newsroom in

Australia Melbourne - Ivap
Australia Sydney - WM
Canada - 1truecoolguy & Mephisto
London - Yaaro ??? - am I right here???
New York - I have a friend ...:-)
etc etc -
Morq - you have all the connections in India but be good if we could include the following cities too...
Oslo (of course - I'm sure they'd like a break from all our shit) Paris & maybe Berlin?

I still wait in vain for more input in the Peace Blog - but whilst we have been plagued by racial/gay verbal violence - I think our focus has shifted - we need to get back on track ... so might be time to re-visit the ole Peace Blog & give PEACE A CHANCE!!!!!!

whoo hoo - I love capitals - whoo hooo

... errr sorry Sittignut :-( - got a bit carried away there!
 
ashanti - thanks, but it's not financial. I've just trashed my computer doing stuff.

sittingnut - I wasn't thinking of a real betting but a prediction market with monopoly/virtual money.
 
jini:
your comment itself makes it fairly clear whose campaign is exclusively racist.

ashanthi:
i think elections department updates their web site at the same time as they release results to local media.
link

ivap:
why did you trash your 'computer doing stuff'!?

interesting idea about 'monopoly' money but i think to predict accurately it should be real money(other wise you will have to screen the players before hand).

if others are thinking what the hell is a political market, go here. it's a experimental market conducted by university of iowa (i think it is the first such thing) business school. at present they don't have any active election market but they hadthem at u.s. election time. here are the graphs for 2000 and 2004 presidential 'winner takes all' market.
 
why? Experimented a little too far without a recovery disk...:)

Yep....we are talking about the same thing.
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