Saturday, October 15, 2005

The Missing Manifesto

It's Saturday. The release of the UPFA/Mahinda Rajapakse manifesto for the Presidential Election of 2005 was supposed to come out tomorrow (Sunday). This is already after one delay from last week. But now it seems they have pushed it back another two days to Tuesday. The news on the State Broadcasters has been dodging this fact and making it sound like it's the most normal thing for a candidate to not have put forward a manifesto this far out from nominations.

But this makes some people question, is a manifesto important to the Mahinda for President Campaign? And do they even have one?


Do they have a manifesto?

Everyone is starting to say, and they're probably right, that the UPFA and Mahinda Rajapakse do not have a manifesto! If that were to be true, and if they're in the process of cooking one up in a hurry, then it's not going to have much committment behind it. It's going to be a mere vote-getting, promise-making document that's going to be forgotten about soon after the election. (Not that the UNP manifesto is much more than that itself).

It seems the problem is that Mahinda's manifesto was written mainly by the JVP and it didn't contain any committment to a federal solution to the ethnic conflict. So it seems CBK wasn't very happy with it. We may see her as a crazy woman now, but she has had a genuine desire to resolve the conflict, and she has very clearly displayed this through her actions in the past and I don't think she's going to let go of that now.

If she gets her way then the JVP aren't going to be very happy with the manifesto. Mahinda's going to have to pick very very soon which way he's going to swing. Mahinda's never had a solid stand on what he thinks should be the solution to the conflict. He hasn't really shown a committment to a political settlement and his pacts with the JVP and JHU have made a lot of people wonder if he really wants to settle the problem the way CBK has wanted to for the past decade.

The fact that they haven't yet decided on anything is indicative of the big struggle going on within the UPFA government right now. Is there going to be a split before the election? That's where things look like they're going. What is that going to do to Mahinda? Hmmm.


Do they need a manifesto?

Quite a few people I know seem to think that the Mahinda camp doesn't need a manifesto because people are going to vote him in not because they like him, but because they want to defeat Ranil and the UNP. Personally I think that's a pathetic way to become the President (if he wins).

This is probably why the fact that they have not yet put forward their manifesto has not become an issue. The JVP and JHU crowd who're going to vote for Mahinda are going to do it because their party is backing him. They're not really concerned about what Mahinda is going to do if he becomes President. All they know is that if he does become President, their party is going to have a lot more of a say in what goes on, and that's good. They're not in this to make a President who can lead the country, but to make a puppet for their leaders to control.

The fact that Mahinda might actually become President without having to tell the country what he stands for, and what he plans to do for the country, is really really sad.

Comments:
 
fortunately mahinda is not going to be president.
this election is turning out to be boring as it gets. in fact given the blow that upfa/racist camp is going to get, we will probably have boring elections with unp victory predictable months ahead for years to come. we are turning in to a singapore politically by this election. i am not going to shed tears anyway. :-)

as for cbk's motivation it is probably more selfish than you think, she just wants to keep control of her party.
and as for jvp they think they are going to win whatever way the election goes. (if they win they will have their puppet, if they lose slfp will be split and they will become the most important opposition group). they alway lived in cloud-cuckoo-land.
 
Well Sittingnut, I have to respectfully disagree with you. I think its far too early in the game to predict an outright victory for Ranil. Let us not forget Sri Lanka's past. The Buddhist revival of the Dharmapala era has evidently had a lasting impact. The rapid rise of the JHU and the JVP was on the crest of a wave of ethno-nationalism espoused by the two parties. They stirred public sentiment. By virtue of the 'signing,' Mahinda's candidacy is seeking a mandate from the people to preserve the heritage of the 'Sinhala Buddhists' over all else.

Attaining peace through war has proved a failure for two decades. The LTTE will never come to the table with a President backing JVP/JHU policy. But chances that voters will cling to the notion of the 'unitary state' and preservation of the 'Sinhala Buddhists' seem stronger than all else.

It could be anyone's race (no pun intended).... but let us remember this... Sri Lanka is 69% to 70% Buddhist... these are the voters.

Judging from Ranil's manifesto, as much as it seems that the man has pulled up his socks, he has the masses to convince.

'Devolution' or 'Unitary Dhamma State?' Ask the masses.
 
Sri Lanka is 69% to 70% Buddhist- but they are also not stupid. only a small portion vote on anything based on their religion. to base one's campaign solely on the hope that something like 70% of sinhala buddhists will vote for one is asking for defeat.

jvp and jhu 'stirred public sentiment' in 2004 yes, but can they again? after all that has happened (to the government, to the country and to their own parties) last year? fact is all their recent campaigns from protests against p-toms and 'privatization' of education failed in spite of spending highly on propaganda (which they could not do earlier).

of course that the campaign has become boring to us does not mean ranil and the unp should take it easy.
 
Fair enough. But let us not forget Bandaranaike's rise to power in 1956. The campaign took on a very communal pitch. It was a race to see who could give more to the Singhalese.

I take your point and hesitate to make the presumption that the masses are stupid. But let us not forget that the from past record,(and given that they have little choice) the electorate has a short-term memory .

For the sake of the country though, I hope you're right!

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