Nittewa

One of the LTTE's main complaints against the Government(s) in the South have been that there's been no political stability, and that there's no point in them negotiating with a Government that has a slim hold of the Parliament and might not even be there in a few months. All the past few Governments have had this problem and even now we have a UPFA Government that does not have a clear majority in Parliament.

Thamilchelvam himself on many occasions has raised many concerns about the political stability in the South. The LTTE have a very valid point there. If I were them I would not want to negotiate with the Government in the South that does not have a very stable future. Even if it were not for the LTTE pointing this out, it clear to everyone that there cannot under any circumstance be a permanent solution to the peace process without a Parliament in Colombo that can make it happen and back it. With the debates on the LTTE's ISGA demand and the establishment of P-TOMS it was very clear that no one leader (or group) in the South could do anything lasting as long as the Parliament remained divided and shaky.

But the entire country knew that if Ranil won a lot would have changed. He would have dissolved the Parliament and called for a General Election that the UNP would have won with a big majortiy. Going by voter patterns over the past decades this is assured. With the UNP controlling the Parliament and Ranil as the President we could have hoped for a level of political stability in the South that we have not seen for many many years. This was possible.

This would have given the LTTE a stable partner with whom to negotiate, and perhaps if Ranil had been president we would have seen a lasting solution to the conflict reached within his first term. But by ensuring Mahinda's victory the LTTE has taken political instability in the country to a whole new level. Now we have an accidental President who barely scraped through, and in the Parliament the UPFA is still on thin ice. Mahinda cannot go for a General Election because he knows that as it stands the UNP could really beat them soundly at it and gain control of the Parliament. If that was to happen then they would easily be able to manipulate the votes needed to push through a bill to take away the executive powers of the President and essentially cut Mahinda's balls off. He will not risk that so he will not go for a General Election till they are absolutely sure they can win it with even a mini landslide.

The entire country knew what would happen if Mahinda won with a slim majortiy. The LTTE knew it too, which is what makes me wonder what drove them to engineer this result. What interest do they have in keeping the Government in the South weak and unstable? What gain do they have in ensuring that the JVP and the Sinhala Buddhist extremists are able to control and shape Government policy?

The very fact that the UPFA is on thin ice in the Parliament makes them more dependent on the JVP and the JHU for their votes in the house. I do not dislike Mahinda as a person and believe that he would have been a good leader if he had not allowed the JVP control him like they now do. But now he is completely dependent on them to keep his party in control of the Parliament. And with the power they now hold over him they will manipulate him like they manipulated the UPFA Government till they quit it. Back then they had Chandrika to go up against and she was never comfortable with allying with them. But now they have her out of the way and they have a President who is more open to being manipulated by them. Mahinda will give them key ministries (I predict the Ministry of Cultural Affairs and the Ministry of Agriculture for starters) which they will use to further establish their power in the country and slowly eat at the SLFP from within.

But the problem is, if they do not want a stable Government in the South, what does the LTTE want? Do they not want to negotiate any further? Do they want to go back to war? To me it seems like their main intention is to install a unstable Governemt in the South and keep it unstable so they can show the rest of the world what a bunch of f***-ups the Sri Lankan Government is.

What happens to all the people in the South who believed in peace and believed that the LTTE would show some kind of committment to a lasting solution?

Is the LTTE no longer comitted to trying to find a lasting solution to the conflict?

What the f*** do they want?

posted by Morquendi @  1:18 AM   || 7 opinion/s ||